Analysis of Servitization Transformation Mechanism Based on Lotka-Volterra Model

Jin Liu, Yifan Zhan, Jinchao Guo
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Abstract

Servitization of manufacturing is one of the important ways of industrial transformation and upgrading. A symbiotic evolution model of traditional manufacturing and service-oriented manufacturing was established based on the Lotka-Voterra model, and the evolution trend of these two types of manufacturing was analyzed in depth by collecting data of Guangdong Province. The results show that: (1) the Lotka-Volterra model has good adaptability to the evolution of manufacturing servitization, and the fitted data are closer to the actual value; (2) according to the model prediction results, the manufacturing industry is obviously weak in growth rate due to internal and external factors, and will grow slowly in the future and reach the limit of output level in ten years; (3) service-oriented manufacturing is parasitic on traditional manufacturing, and the development of service-oriented manufacturing will inhibit the development of traditional manufacturing.
基于Lotka-Volterra模型的服务化转型机制分析
制造业服务化是产业转型升级的重要途径之一。基于Lotka-Voterra模型,建立了传统制造与服务型制造的共生演化模型,并通过收集广东省数据,对两种制造的演化趋势进行了深入分析。结果表明:(1)Lotka-Volterra模型对制造业服务化演化具有较好的适应性,拟合数据更接近实际值;(2)根据模型预测结果,受内外因素影响,制造业增速明显疲软,未来增长缓慢,十年后达到产出水平极限;(3)服务型制造寄生于传统制造业,服务型制造的发展将抑制传统制造业的发展。
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