INVESTIGATING THE HISTORICAL CORRELATION BETWEEN ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION AND GLOBAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE

Abstract

Understanding the fundamental relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and temperature rise is essential for tackling the problem of climate change that faces us today. Misconceptions regarding the relationship are widespread due to media and political influences. This investigation aims to address the popular misconception that CO2 concentration directly and naturally leads to global temperature rise. While anthropogenic CO2 emissions seem to affect the rising global atmospheric temperature with a confidence of 95%, it falters when the historical relationship using ice core data is studied. This investigation uses two statistical approaches to determine an accurate range and direction for this important relationship. Through a combined approach, it was found that historically CO2 concentration in the last 650 000 years lags global temperature rise by 1020-1080 years with a maximum correlation coefficient of 0.8371-0.8372. This result is important for the investigation of climate change.