Reliability index forecast by fuzzy principle

Abstract

This paper proposes the reliability index forecast of the feeders in the central area of Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA), during 2002 – 2009. The failure rate distribution of each protective device (Breaker, Recloser and Fuse) is assumed by Weibull distribution. In addition, fuzzy set is introduced to describe the uncertainty of those failure rates by combining each failure rate of protective devices which effect to a load point. Finally, the incoming year System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) of each feeder can be calculated by fuzzy principle base on the evaluated failure rates and number of customers at that load point.