ОVERVIEW OF STATISTICAL METHODS FOR FORECAST DEVELOPMENT

Abstract

Having a general idea of the nature of the forecast and understanding the general methodology of forecasting in general, it is advisable for analytical departments, economic departments, management units of enterprises, banks, firms (of any socio-economic objects) to develop at least short-term forecasts based on indicators of their activity in modern conditions coopetitions to understand trends in changes in these indicators. As a result of the conducted research, the basic principles that must be observed when developing forecasts are revealed, as well as a detailed description and features of statistical auto-projective forecasting methods are given: random walk models containing a free term or it; models characterizing a deterministic trend with random fluctuations around the trend; moving average models; exponential smoothing models using simple exponential smoothing, linear, quadratic and seasonal smoothing (Brown, Holt, and Winters models); integrated presentation of autoregressive models and moving average models (parametric ARIMA models). In addition, the conducted research confirmed that the significance of the developed forecast and the level of confidence in the obtained future values of the indicators depends on the quality of the developed models. The criteria for checking the quality of the developed forecasts are: the Akaike information criterion, which evaluates the quality of the model compared to each other; the Hannan-Quinn Criterion information criterion, which is used to compare models with a different number of parameters and is an alternative to the Akaike information criterion; the Schwarz-Bayesian information Criterion, which compares the quality of a model relative to each other using a likelihood function; the mean squared error value, the absolute value of the mean squared error and the absolute value of the mean squared error expressed as a percentage.