METHOD FOR CALCULATING THE FORECAST OF THE DYNAMICS OF AGRICULTURAL LAND AREAS IN THE NOVGOROD REGION

Abstract

The article reveals the problem of irrational use of agricultural land and land relations in the Novgorod region. The most important sign of such use is the annual reduction in the area of this category. Based on the use of the SPACE analysis method by the authors to assess the level of agricultural development in the Novgorod region, taking into account its natural resource potential, the position of this region in the North-Western Federal District was determined as with low agricultural production, and a number of problems in the field of land relations in the region that hinder rational land use were identified. In order to identify these problems, the authors used the method of extrapolating a number of dynamics with the calculation of optimistic and pessimistic ways of developing land relations in the region. As a result, the authors systematized the main reasons for the destruction of land relations in the Novgorod region into natural, organizational, economic and social ones, and also developed direc-tions for improving the use of agricultural land in the Novgorod region, including through the use of rental mechanisms, in order to achieve the rational use of such land.