Evaluation of impacts of climate change on natural and managed wetland basins

Abstract

Low floodplain wetlands such as the Western Everglades in South Florida are vulnerable to extreme weather events, and their water quality and ecosystem functions vary greatly depending on changes in water levels and discharges. The future (i.e., the mid and late 21st century) climate is projected to result in increased frequency and magnitude of extreme events, which could negatively affect the hydroecological function of the wetlands. Wetland management practices have commonly been implemented to protect wetlands and their functions, but it is not clear whether the current management practices can still be effective in projected climate change scenarios. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the runoff and total phosphorus (TP) of natural (L28 Gap) and managed (L28) wetland watersheds in the Western Everglades. For the assessment, we employed future climate projections made using 29 general circulation models (GCMs) and the Watershed Assessment Model (WAM), a watershed loading model. The WAM was calibrated and validated for the baseline period (2000–2014), and the bias-corrected climate projections were incorporated into the model to project the runoff discharge and TP loads for the near-future (2030–2044) and far-future (2070–2084) periods in two carbon emission scenarios. The modeling results show that the natural wetland watershed would be more vulnerable to projected climate change than the managed wetland watershed. The impact of projected climate change scenarios on daily runoff and TP loads was modulated by water control facilities and practices in the managed watershed, highlighting the significance of watershed management practices for improved water quality under projected climate change. This study demonstrates how the local natural and managed wetland watersheds distinctly respond to the global-scale changes and emphasizes the role of water management practices in wetland basins, which are expected to help develop effective climate change adaptation plans for improved sustainability of wetland systems.