Energy Structure and Intensity Prediction During the 14th Five-Year Plan in China

Abstract

Markov chain and nonlinear cubic exponential smoothing model are respectively used to predict China’s energy structure and energy intensity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The results show that the proportion of coal in China during the 14th Five-year Plan period will decrease from 56.5% in 2020 to 51.7% in 2025. The share of non-fossil energy consumption will rise from 16.1% in 2020 to 19.1% in 2025. Compared with 2020, the energy intensity of the three industries will decrease by 18%, 13% and 18% respectively. Based on the prediction results, the energy structure modulating and optimization is analyzed and some suggestions are put forward.