Government Size and Economic Growth in Botswana: An Application of Nonlinear Armey Curve Analysis

Kefilwe A. Kalayakgosi
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

This study has investigated the impact of government size on economic growth in Botswana using annual time series data for the period 1973 to 2012. The study adopted a framework analysis based on a quadratic function/second degree polynomial regression employed by Herath (2012). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method was used for the regression analysis. The results obtained are not consistent with the empirical and theoretical views as small government size has a negative impact on economic growth while a large government size has a positive impact on economic growth. The results obtained in the study were opposite to the views of most of the studies conducted. Nominal Total government expenditure is used as a measure of government size and growth of nominal GDP is used to measure economic growth. The study also employed other control variables which affect growth like government revenue as a percentage of GDP, Gross capital formation (GCF) as a percentage of GDP as proxy for investment rate and growth of paid employees as a proxy for labor force growth. The results showed that government revenue and GCF had a negative impact on economic growth but GCF was insignificant. Growth of paid employees on the other hand had a positive impact on economic growth. The study aimed at investigating the existence of the Armey curve in a developing country like Botswana. Due to government size having a negative impact on economic growth and government size squared having a positive impact on economic growth the conclusion is that the Armey curve does not exist in Botswana.
博茨瓦纳政府规模与经济增长:非线性军队曲线分析的应用
本研究利用1973年至2012年的年度时间序列数据调查了博茨瓦纳政府规模对经济增长的影响。本研究采用了Herath(2012)的二次函数/二次多项式回归的框架分析。采用普通最小二乘法(OLS)进行回归分析。所得结果与实证和理论观点不一致,小政府规模对经济增长有负面影响,而大政府规模对经济增长有积极影响。该研究得出的结果与大多数研究的观点相反。名义政府总支出被用来衡量政府规模,名义GDP的增长被用来衡量经济增长。该研究还采用了其他影响增长的控制变量,如政府收入占GDP的百分比,总资本形成(GCF)占GDP的百分比作为投资率的代表,带薪雇员的增长作为劳动力增长的代表。结果表明,财政收入和GCF对经济增长有负向影响,但GCF不显著。另一方面,受薪雇员的增长对经济增长产生了积极影响。这项研究旨在调查像博茨瓦纳这样的发展中国家是否存在陆军曲线。由于政府规模对经济增长有负面影响,政府规模的平方对经济增长有积极影响,因此结论是,在博茨瓦纳不存在Armey曲线。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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