A Rapid Loss Index for Tropical Cyclone Disasters in China

Abstract

Disaster emergency response needs rapid estimation on disaster loss. In China it is of great importance to develop a loss index for rapidly assessing tropical cyclone (TC) disaster loss. In this paper, a new composite loss index for TC landing on China is proposed after reviewing past methods. Firstly, correlation analysis is made between historical TC direct loss and variables reflecting time, space and intensity of TC. Secondly, a rapid loss index is developed which is composed of mean translation speed, duration on the land, mean radius of wind exceeding Beaufort force eight and maximum of maximum sustained wind speed, four variables selected stepwise in the former step, as well as two parameters and four constants. Finally, the parameters and constants in the index are set based on data of 97 TCs from 1990 to 2009. The correlation coefficient of the index to loss value is 0.74 and passes confidence level of 99%, which means it is effective for rapid damage assessment.