Climate change and its impact on drought in Eastern Gansu rainfed agricultural area in Northwest China in the last thirty years

Abstract

The monthly precipitation and temperature data，soil moisture data and NDVI data from 1981 to 2010 in Eastern Gansu were used to analyze the temperature, precipitation, soil moisture and drought change in this area. The results show that: 1) The climate in Eastern Gansu appeared a significant warming trend, and the temperature increase was extremely significant in spring, summer, autumn and winter. Among them, the spring temperature increase was the largest with the rate of 0.82 °C/10a. 2) The annual precipitation has experienced a process of high-low-high in the past 30 years. Among them precipitation in spring continued to decrease, while other seasons showed increase tendency in the 21st century after a decline in the last 10 years of the 20th century. 3) The soil moisture in the whole layer (10-100cm) in spring showed a significant downward trend, especially in the surface layer. During the growth season, the water storage capacity of the whole layer of soil decreased significantly. 4) The frequency and extent of drought events in Eastern Gansu experienced a change of low-high-low process. The lowest period of drought occurred in the 1980s and the highest period occurred in the 1990s. The frequency and extent in the first 10 years of this century declined. 5) The spring drought occurred most frequently and strongest intensity in the past 30a. AVI has a good consistency with CI and soil moisture on the monitoring of drought process, but the volatility is higher.