Policy-Decision Environment and Cognitive Biases

Abstract

Cognitive biases are a mistake in reasoning, evaluating, remembering, or other cognitive processes. They are mental errors caused by our simplified information processing strategies, and can be cultural, emotional, or intellectual predispositions toward a certain judgment, organizational bias, and bias that results from one's self-interest. The chapter explores some case studies in the foreign policy decision-making, distinguished in groupthink and polythink types, such as Pearl Harbor, Cuba Missile Crisis, Iraq Invasion of 2003, and post-9/11 environment.