Generation expansion planning under uncertainty considering power-to-gas technology

N. van Bracht, A. Moser
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引用次数: 3

Abstract

In the course of ambitious climate targets, the European electrical power system is subject to an upcoming shift from fossil-fueled to renewable power generation. As a consequence, it remains vague which expansions involve the least-cost transformation path while satisfying security of supply as well as providing sufficient flexibility to handle an increasing share of intermittent feed-in. Hence, this paper presents the stochastic generation expansion planning method ‘ZEUS’ which optimizes investment decisions under uncertainty. Exemplary simulations show that in a power system shaped by renewables an expansion of 7 GW Power-to-Gas technology in Germany appears to be economically efficient. Furthermore, it becomes obvious that the emerging development path significantly changes when relevant uncertainties are explicitly anticipated in the planning process.
考虑电制气技术的不确定性下的发电扩张规划
在实现雄心勃勃的气候目标的过程中,欧洲电力系统即将从化石燃料转向可再生能源发电。因此,在满足供应安全的同时,哪些扩展涉及成本最低的转换路径,以及提供足够的灵活性来处理日益增加的间歇性上网份额,仍然是模糊的。因此,本文提出了在不确定条件下优化投资决策的随机发电扩展规划方法ZEUS。典型的模拟表明,在一个由可再生能源形成的电力系统中,德国扩大7吉瓦的电转气技术似乎具有经济效益。此外,很明显,当规划过程中明确预期到相关的不确定性时,新兴的发展路径会发生重大变化。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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