{"title":"Generation expansion planning under uncertainty considering power-to-gas technology","authors":"N. van Bracht, A. Moser","doi":"10.1109/EEM.2017.7981865","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In the course of ambitious climate targets, the European electrical power system is subject to an upcoming shift from fossil-fueled to renewable power generation. As a consequence, it remains vague which expansions involve the least-cost transformation path while satisfying security of supply as well as providing sufficient flexibility to handle an increasing share of intermittent feed-in. Hence, this paper presents the stochastic generation expansion planning method ‘ZEUS’ which optimizes investment decisions under uncertainty. Exemplary simulations show that in a power system shaped by renewables an expansion of 7 GW Power-to-Gas technology in Germany appears to be economically efficient. Furthermore, it becomes obvious that the emerging development path significantly changes when relevant uncertainties are explicitly anticipated in the planning process.","PeriodicalId":416082,"journal":{"name":"2017 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2017-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"3","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"2017 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2017.7981865","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Abstract
In the course of ambitious climate targets, the European electrical power system is subject to an upcoming shift from fossil-fueled to renewable power generation. As a consequence, it remains vague which expansions involve the least-cost transformation path while satisfying security of supply as well as providing sufficient flexibility to handle an increasing share of intermittent feed-in. Hence, this paper presents the stochastic generation expansion planning method ‘ZEUS’ which optimizes investment decisions under uncertainty. Exemplary simulations show that in a power system shaped by renewables an expansion of 7 GW Power-to-Gas technology in Germany appears to be economically efficient. Furthermore, it becomes obvious that the emerging development path significantly changes when relevant uncertainties are explicitly anticipated in the planning process.