Research on Interaction Modeling of Cross-border E-commerce and Import and Export Trade

Abstract

This paper explores the interaction between cross-border e-commerce and import and export trade in China through the establishment of VAR model and the time series of cross-border e-commerce transaction volume and import and export trade volume from 2014 to 2017. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship betweenthe two, and there is a one-way causality and change response relationship. Combined with the theoretical connection and development status of cross-border e-commerce and import and export trade development, it is recommended that the state should strengthen the support and supervision of import and export trade, and accelerate the improvement of cross-border e-commerce industrial system and service environment in the industry. A coordinated development trend needs to be formed to promote the stable and healthy development of cross-border e-commerce and import and export trade.