Fuzzy Evaluation of Transmission Line End-of-Life Reliability Model

Abstract

This paper proposes a “hybrid” model to quantify the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties of the transmission line’s failure while being enhanced by the dynamic thermal rating (DTR) system. The aleatory uncertainty propagates probabilistic failures, whereas the epistemic uncertainty propagates imprecision in the parameters of the failure model. The Arrhenius-Weibull model is used to characterize the end-of-life failures. The results in this paper shows that the proposed hybrid method relaxes the reliability evaluation criteria and as a result the produced reliability index is not fixed at a single value.