Evaluation of Adaptation Capability of the Russian Power Industry in front of Changes in Macroeconomic and Price Factors

Abstract

The article presents an assessment of scale and cost of investment decisions necessary to adapt the Russian power industry in response to high level of uncertainty in such factors as post-crisis electricity demand growth, pricing policy at the domestic energy markets, technological profile of thermal power plants modernization and a growth of non-carbon generation. To solve this strategic planning problem, a combination of capacity expansion and fuel supply optimization model and financial models describing the required economic conditions for investment feasibility was used. Based on this approach, we quantified the key economic indicators of the Russian power industry and compared their volatility with the uncertainty range of the input factors.