Current Failure Prediction for Final Examination using Past Trends of Weekly Online Testing

Abstract

Previously, we showed that we can predict the success/failure status for the final examination to each student at early stages in courses using the current trends of estimated abilities in terms of item response theory for online testing. However, we used the same testing results in prediction and in construction of the mathematical model, which may cause overfitting effect. In this paper, we have shown that we can still predict the current success/failure status for the final examination using the past trends of estimated abilities of the online testing and the past final examination results.