Economic security study of the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation: dynamic analysis and modeling

Abstract

Subject/topic. The article is devoted to the study of economic security indicators of the Central Federal District (CFD) of Russia. The object of this study is the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation. The subject of the study is the indicators of economic security of the region. Goals/tasks. Based on the list of indicators formed in accordance with the «Strategy of Economic Security of the Russian Federation until 2030» to determine the composition of the economic security of the regions of Russia, to classify them, to analyze the dynamics, on the basis of which to build economic and mathematical models of changes in the main parameters of economic security of the Central Federal District. Methodology. In the course of the study, modern methods of scientific and statistical group and mathematical modeling were used: indicative and basic array, scientific generalizations, grouping, dynamic series, correlation and regression analysis. Results. The article systematizes and studies the economic security of the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation, which made it possible to determine the problems of economic security of this territory, the prevailing trends and causes of negative dynamics of indicators, as well as to identify the most significant factors determining the change in the effective parameters of economic security using the constructed multifactor model. Conclusions/significance. The novelty consists in the theoretical justification of the economic security of the region, taking into account the systematization and grouping of economic security indicators at the regional level in accordance with the industrial and commercial, innovative and technical, and socio-personnel spheres of life. Application. The results of the study can be applied in practice in the formation or adjustment of the medium-term economic policy of the regions of the Russian Federation, as well as in general to monitor the dynamics of economic security at the regional level in the implementation of the goals and objectives of the current economic policy of the state.