EFFECT OF FOREİGN TRADE ON EMPLOYMENT IN TURKEY: SPATIAL PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Abstract

In the study to examine the relationship between employment and foreign trade, which is directly proportional to economic growth, the data of 81 provinces of Turkey has been examined by considering the period of 2009 to 2020. The mentioned neighborhood of the provinces is included in the model using the bishop border neighborhood matrix. Spatial econometrics application; which was analyzed under three headings: spatial autoregressive, spatial error, and spatial Durbin model, obtained remarkable. Models were estimated using the maximum likelihood (ML) method. In the paper, the Moran’s I index was calculated to examine the convergence in employment rates among provinces. In the study exploring the convergence of the employment levels of the regions, it was determined that there were minor changes over the years. Then, the analysis results were evaluated by applying three different models. According to the findings, the effect of foreign trade on employment has been interpreted.