On the R&D Priority Setting in Technology Foresight: a DEA and ANP Approach

Abstract

One of the salient objectives of technology foresight is the determination of R&D priorities. However, there have been few systematic approaches proposed for prioritization of emerging technologies in the foresight context. This study is aimed at proposing a systematic approach based on multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) methods to setting R&D priorities of emerging technologies in the technology foresight context. The proposed approach consists of two stages with two MCDM methods. At the first stage, a number of emerging technologies are screened with macro-level criteria. The socio-economic cost-benefit analysis is conducted by use of data envelopment analysis (DEA). The second stage dealt with the detailed prioritization of the emerging technologies which have passed through the first stage. Analytic network process (ANP) is employed with micro-level criteria. The derived R&D priorities of emerging technologies are expected to aid decision making on how to allocate R&D resources