An Integrated Approach to Uncertainty Management on the Example of Alexander Zhagrin Field

Abstract

Summary The formation of the exploration program is a complex process that requires an integrated approach. A successful exploration program is based on a multi-level analysis of all possible geological uncertainties, probabilistic assessment of reserves and resources, analysis of tornado charts, maps of variation coefficients, and calculation of the value of information. This work considers the consistent formation and execution of exploration works on the example of Alexander Zhagrin field, which allowed to start production in two years after discovery of oil field in autonomous conditions. The research region is located in the Khanty-Mansiisk autonomous districtof the Tyumen region. The main potentially productive formation is the river-dominated delta sediments of the Cretaceous complex represented by the stratum AS-9.