Measured variability and uncertainty in flight operations

Abstract

Presents a collection of slides from the author's conference presentation. • Our model provides the flexibility to estimate uncertainty of several TBO trajectory predictors in the same general framework • Our Model ensures not just explicitly modeled sources but also un-modeled sources contribute to uncertainty estimate by using historical trajectories • Our model provides the ability to estimate “point to point” estimates of uncertainty anywhere along the trajectory • Early evidence suggests that operational uncertainty is strongly influenced by airspace characteristics in addition to phase of flight