Application of extreme value theory for measuring risk of safe operation of power system in Adriatic wind conditions

Abstract

Wind power production in Adriatic wind conditions, especially in Croatian Control Area, is extremely dependent on variable wind conditions and therefore very unpredictable. Accurate wind power forecasting is important to ensure safe power system operation and safe electricity supply. Special attention has been paid to application of extreme value theory in defining, evaluating and measuring risk of wind power forecasting and therefore risk of safe power system planning, operation and control.