Simulation of the hypothesis generation process

ACM '74 Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI:10.1145/1408800.1408825
D. Gerwin
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Abstract

Can the process by which scientific hypotheses are developed be made explicit? This paper investigates the issue by assuming hypotheses come from data, utilizing an information processing framework, and setting up a laboratory simulation in which subjects infer mathematical functions from plots of coordinate values. Protocol information collected in this setting provide the basis for a computer model of the sequence leading from the data to hypotheses. The model has five steps including the identification of the data's significant features and their organization into a coherent pattern, inferring of a general class of hypotheses, determination of a specific hypothesis from the class, testing by means of comparing hypotheses' predictions with the data, and iteration if necessary. Tests of the model indicate it gets the same answer as subjects most of the time and follows some of the process used by subjects in obtaining answers.
假设生成过程的仿真
科学假说形成的过程是否能够明确?本文通过假设来自数据的假设来研究这个问题,利用信息处理框架,并建立了一个实验室模拟,在这个模拟中,受试者从坐标值的图中推断数学函数。在此设置中收集的协议信息为从数据到假设的序列的计算机模型提供了基础。该模型有五个步骤,包括识别数据的重要特征并将其组织成一个连贯的模式,推断一般类型的假设,从该类中确定特定的假设,通过比较假设的预测与数据进行测试,并在必要时进行迭代。对该模型的测试表明,它在大多数情况下得到与受试者相同的答案,并遵循受试者在获得答案时使用的一些过程。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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