{"title":"The Shift to East: China, US Dollar, and the New Multipolar World","authors":"M. Campanella","doi":"10.2478/tfd-2018-0029","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Geo-economics literature has largely anticipated that the world’s economic center of gravity is shifting East. Yet how quick this seems to be happening, and what geo-political consequences this development is set to generate in the current international system, still raise surprise and concern. After describing in a glimpse what the shift of the economic center of gravity really means, I will make some observations on why the new economic realities have not yet changed the current financial and monetary international order, which sees the US dollar to still be the king. In a pioneering study (2012) on the economic impact of urbanization, the McKinsey Global Institute gauged how the center of gravity, in motion since the year 1AD and likely to move until 2025, is rapidly shifting East, at a speed of 140 kilometers a year, a faster speed than ever before in human history.","PeriodicalId":426036,"journal":{"name":"The Federalist Debate","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2018-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"The Federalist Debate","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2478/tfd-2018-0029","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Geo-economics literature has largely anticipated that the world’s economic center of gravity is shifting East. Yet how quick this seems to be happening, and what geo-political consequences this development is set to generate in the current international system, still raise surprise and concern. After describing in a glimpse what the shift of the economic center of gravity really means, I will make some observations on why the new economic realities have not yet changed the current financial and monetary international order, which sees the US dollar to still be the king. In a pioneering study (2012) on the economic impact of urbanization, the McKinsey Global Institute gauged how the center of gravity, in motion since the year 1AD and likely to move until 2025, is rapidly shifting East, at a speed of 140 kilometers a year, a faster speed than ever before in human history.
地缘经济学文献在很大程度上预测了世界经济的重心正在东移。然而,这似乎发生得有多快,以及这一发展将在当前国际体系中产生何种地缘政治后果,仍然令人惊讶和担忧。在简要描述了经济重心转移的真正含义之后,我将对新的经济现实为什么还没有改变当前以美元为王的国际金融货币秩序进行一些观察。在一项关于城市化经济影响的开创性研究(2012年)中,麦肯锡全球研究所(McKinsey Global Institute)估计,自公元11年以来一直在移动、可能一直移动到2025年的重心,正以每年140公里的速度迅速东移,这是人类历史上前所未有的速度。