Dynamics of Biofuel Prices on the European Market: Impact of the EU Environmental Policy on the Resources Markets

F. Declerck, Jean-Pierre Indjehagopian, F. Lantz
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

This paper aims at explaining the major drivers of bio-diesel market prices by examining agricultural resource prices and gas-oil prices for automotive fuels in the context of the EU environmental policy. The EU policy has enhanced bio-diesel production since 2006. Bio-diesel prices are impacted by the EU policy as well as rapeseed and oil prices which have fluctuated a lot over the last decade. An econometric analysis was performed using monthly data from November 2006 to January 2016. However, tests for structural breaks show several changes in price behavior. This leads us to estimate a regime-switching model which reveals two main regimes for the bio-diesel price pattern. When oil prices are high, bio-diesel, rapeseed and diesel oil prices are related, mainly driven by oil prices. When oil prices are low, bio-diesel prices are mostly related to rapeseed prices according to EU regulations requiring the blending of bio-diesel and gas-oil.
生物燃料价格在欧洲市场的动态:欧盟环境政策对资源市场的影响
本文旨在通过研究欧盟环境政策背景下的农业资源价格和汽车燃料的汽油价格来解释生物柴油市场价格的主要驱动因素。自2006年以来,欧盟的政策促进了生物柴油的生产。生物柴油价格受到欧盟政策以及油菜籽和石油价格的影响,这些价格在过去十年中波动很大。使用2006年11月至2016年1月的月度数据进行计量经济分析。然而,对结构性突破的测试显示了价格行为的一些变化。这导致我们估计一个制度转换模型,揭示了生物柴油价格模式的两个主要制度。油价高时,生物柴油、油菜籽、柴油价格相关,主要受油价驱动。在油价较低的时候,生物柴油的价格主要与欧盟规定的油菜籽价格相关,因为欧盟规定生物柴油和天然气油必须混合。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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