MODELLING OF INFLUENCE OF CLIMATIC FACTORS ON PRODUCTIVITY OF GRAIN CROPS (ON MATERIALS OF UDMURTIYA)

Abstract

Dynamics of change of productivity of grain crops of Udmurtiya from 1913 for 2018 in interrelation with changes of environmental conditions in agrarian branch of region is shown. Tendencies of development of plant growing are revealed and influence of meteorological indicators on efficiency of agriculture is proved. Correlation communications of productivity grain with a temperature mode and water supply during the separate periods of growth of plants are considered. Are received regress models of various kinds for forecasting of productivity and the role of each climatic factor in these models is estimated. On this basis the basic natural factors of formation of a grain yield are revealed. On the basis of the analysis of time numbers of meteorological indicators on temperatures and deposits during the summer period the equations of a trend which on a long-term interval prove laws of growth of daily average temperature and monthly average deposits are received. Existence of cyclic components in changes of temperature and deposits is simultaneously revealed, and also periodicity of these cycles is calculated. Possibilities of application of the received models for the decision of administrative problems are shown.