نموذج إحصائي مقترح لتسعير أخطار المعدات الساحبة بهيئة السكك الحديدية المصرية A proposed statistical model for pricing the risks of tug equipment at the Egyptian Rail Authority

Abstract

The Rail Transport are exposed to a variety of risks, including the risk of collision and overturning of tractors and railway cars, the risk of damage to transported cargo and the risk of death or disability for passengers. The research aims to pricing the risks of train tractors using statistical methods and to arrive at a probabilistic model that governs the measurement of the value of these risks, leading to a fair and adequate insurance. Also using some of zero-inflated distributions, due to the presence of zero inflation losses. The first part of the study includes the theoretical study of the risks of the National Rail Authority, and the second part includes the applied study and the proposed probabilistic distribution of the value of the aggregate losses to the traction units. The study concluded that the distribution of the number of losses follows a negative binomial distribution and. zero-inflated Weibull is the best distribution in representing the values of the losses data under study, and the net rate that must be collected from the Railways Authority to insure the accidents of train tractors is. 0.04 in thousands. The research recommends the importance of using quantitative methods and zero inflation distributions for pricing the hazards of train tractors