Measurement and Assessment of the Evolution of Technology with a Simple Biological Model

Abstract

Abstract. A simple model of the development of technology is presented. This model, in a broad analogy with evolutionary ecology of parasites, within a theoretical framework of Generalized Darwinism, can explain vital characteristics of technological advances and technological evolution. In particular, the evolution of technology is modelled here in terms of morphological changes between a host technology and a main subsystem of technology. The coefficient of evolutionary growth of this simple model here indicates the grade and type of the evolution of technology. This coefficient is quantified in real cases study using historical data of farm tractor, freight locomotive and electricity generation technology in steam-powered plants and internal-combustion plants. The approach of measurement and assessment of technological evolution proposed here seems to be appropriate in grasping the dynamics of technological evolution to predict which technologies are likeliest to evolve rapidly. Keywords. Measurement of technology, Technometrics, Technological evolution, Technological change, Technological forecasting, Technology assessment, Technological progress, Innovation, Technology studies, Public decision making. JEL. O30, O31, O32, O33, O38.