Probabilistic DC load-flow based on Two-Point Estimation (T-PE) method

Abstract

In this paper, a Probabilistic DC Load Flow based on Two-Point Estimation (T-PE) Method is proposed. Many PLF methods have been used to study load flow uncertainties. But the calculation time of these methods are considerable. The proposed method uses only two calculations of the deterministic load flow, to calculate the statistical moments of the load-flow solution. Therefore, the proposed method is faster than other methods. In this study, it is assumed that the probabilistic density function of bus injections, probability of lines outage and probability of unit outages can be estimated or measured. The proposed method has been applied to IEEE 14-bus and IEEE 30-bus test systems. The results indicate that the proposed method reduces the calculation time while maintaining sufficient accuracy.