Research on Performance Analysis of Air Traffic Flow Management Combined Strategy Impacted by uncertainty

Abstract

Since the implementation performance of the composite air traffic flow management strategy is impacted by the departure time uncertainty and/or the estimated time over the enroute point, it is needed to quantitatively analyze the uncertainty impact on the composite strategy. Focused on the initial composite strategy which combines ground delay strategy and miles-in-trail restriction, the practical operation data of Sanya Control Area in the South China Sea is utilized to analyze uncertainty characterization of the departure time and the en-route flying time. Algorithm for dynamically adjusting the initial management strategy is designed and the assessment performance metrics for the composited strategy impacted under uncertainty are advanced and calculated. Then the performance is analyzed with the Monte-Carlo method. 不确定性影响下的流量管理组合策略效能分析研究 张颖, 徐冬慧, 郭野晨风, 问涛, 阿音格 南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京,中国 yoyozhying@163.com, 229080152@qq.com, 458672216@qq.com, nhwt17@nuaa.edu.cn, 1498766412@qq.com 张颖 关键词:流量管理; 组合策略; 不确定性; 蒙特卡洛方法 中文摘要. 流量管理组合策略的实施效能受到策略执行中航班起飞时间和/或预计经过航路 点时间不确定性的影响,需要定量化分析时间不确定性对组合策略效能的影响。针对地面等 待策略和尾随间隔限制组合管理初始策略,采用南中国海地区三亚管制区的航班实际运行数 据分析起飞时间以及空中飞行时间的不确定性,设计不确定性影响下对初始策略进行动态调 整的算法,提出并计算不确定性影响下组合策略效能的评价指标,采用蒙特卡洛方法分析了 不确定性影响下组合策略的实施效能。 4th International Conference on Humanities Science, Management and Education Technology (HSMET 2019) Copyright © 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research, volume 334