Short range prediction and monitoring of downbursts over Indian region

Abstract

Convective downdraft motions and related outflow wind considered as an eventual source of potential damage which can be more severe in the aviation sector. A great variety of atmospheric environments can produce these downdraft motions. These events are not easily detectable using conventional weather radar or wind shear alert systems, while Doppler radars are useful for identifying these Downbursts. In order to identify the situations that can cause these downdraft events different diagnostic tools are designed. Recently launched Indian satellite INSAT-3D, with atmospheric sounder and imager on board, is capable of identifying regions of downburst occurrence and can help in monitoring them in real time. Some Downburst events reported over different parts of India, during January-April period is investigated using Microburst Wind Speed Potential Index (MWPI) and thermodynamic characteristics derived from the NCMRWF GFS (NGFS) model. An attempt is made to make a short range prediction of these events using MWPI computed from NGFS model forecasts. The results are validated with in-situ observations and also by employing INSAT-3D data and it is shown that the method has a reasonable success. All the investigated downdraft events are associated with the hybrid Microburst environment.