Demographic Change and Economic Growth in India

N. Jain, Srinivas Goli
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

In this paper, we assess the economic benefits of demographic changes in India by employing econometric models and robustness checks based on panel data gathered over a period of more than three decades. Our analysis highlights four key points. First, the contribution of India’s demographic dividend is estimated to be around 1.9 percentage points out of 12% average annual growth rate in per capita income during 1981–2015. Second, India’s demographic window of opportunity began in 2005, significantly improved after 2011, and will continue till 2061. Third, our empirical analysis supports the argument that the realisation of the demographic dividend is conditional on a conducive policy environment with enabling aspects such as quality education, good healthcare, decent employment opportunities, good infrastructure, and gender empowerment. Fourth, the working-age population in India contributes around one-fourth of the inequality in per capita income across states. Thus, to reap the maximum dividends from the available demographic window of opportunity, India needs to work towards enhancing the quality of education and healthcare in addition to providing good infrastructure, gender empowerment, and decent employment opportunities for the growing working-age population.
印度的人口变化和经济增长
在本文中,我们通过采用计量经济模型和基于三十多年来收集的面板数据的稳健性检查来评估印度人口变化的经济效益。我们的分析强调了四个关键点。首先,1981年至2015年期间,印度人均收入年均增长率为12%,人口红利的贡献估计约为1.9个百分点。其次,印度的人口机会之窗始于2005年,在2011年之后显著改善,并将持续到2061年。第三,我们的实证分析支持这样一种观点,即人口红利的实现取决于有利的政策环境,包括优质教育、良好的医疗保健、体面的就业机会、良好的基础设施和性别赋权等方面。第四,印度各邦人均收入差距的四分之一左右是由劳动年龄人口造成的。因此,为了从现有的人口机会之窗中获得最大红利,印度需要努力提高教育和医疗保健的质量,此外还需要为不断增长的工作年龄人口提供良好的基础设施、性别赋权和体面的就业机会。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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