Deprivation and the Electoral Geography of Brexit

Abstract

This paper provides a comprehensive examination of the relationship between deprivation and the electoral geography of Brexit, using the most granular referendum data and the most detailed deprivation data currently available. Using rank-based statistics we demonstrate that geographic deprivation is positively associated with Leave voting. However, this relationship is neither strong nor straightforward: educational deprivation drives the association, and once higher educational attainment or occupational composition are controlled for the association becomes negative. This has important implications for narratives that assume a causal mechanism connecting multi-dimensional deprivation with the geography of Brexit.