Central America's Regional Trends and U.S. Cycles

S. Roache
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引用次数: 10

Abstract

The economies of Central America share a close relationship with the United States, with considerable comovement of GDP growth over a long period of time. Trade, the financial sector, and remittance flows are all potential channels through which the U.S. cycle could affect the region. But just how dependent is growth in the region on the U.S.? Using the common cycles method of Vahid and Engle (1993), this paper suggests that the business cycle is dominated by the U.S.; region-specific growth drivers tend to be long-lasting shocks, rather than temporary fluctuations. The most cyclically sensitive countries include Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Honduras.
中美洲的区域趋势和美国周期
中美洲的经济与美国有着密切的关系,在很长一段时间内,其国内生产总值的增长相当一致。贸易、金融部门和汇款流动都是美国经济周期可能影响该地区的潜在渠道。但该地区的增长对美国的依赖程度究竟有多高?利用Vahid和Engle(1993)的共同周期方法,本文认为经济周期由美国主导;特定区域的增长动力往往是持久的冲击,而不是暂时的波动。对周期最敏感的国家包括哥斯达黎加、萨尔瓦多和洪都拉斯。
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