Online Conversion Rate Prediction via Neural Satellite Networks in Delayed Feedback Advertising

Abstract

The delayed feedback is becoming one of the main obstacles in online advertising due to the pervasive deployment of the cost-per-conversion display strategy requesting a real-time conversion rate (CVR) prediction. It makes the observed data contain a large number of fake negatives that temporarily have no feedback but will convert later. Training on such biased data distribution would severely harm the performance of models. Prevailing approaches wait for a set period of time to see if samples convert before training on them, but solutions to guaranteeing data freshness remain under-explored by current research. In this work, we propose Delayed Feed-back modeling via neural Satellite Networks (DFSN for short) for online CVR prediction. It tackles the issue of data freshness to permit adaptive waiting windows. We first assign a long waiting window for our main model to cover most of conversions and greatly reduce fake negatives. Meanwhile, two kinds of satellite models are devised to learn from the latest data, and online transfer learning techniques are utilized to sufficiently exploit their knowledge. With information from satellites, our main model can deal with the issue of data freshness, achieving better performance than previous methods. Extensive experiments on two real-world advertising datasets demonstrate the superiority of our model.