Evidence of Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk on Chinese Stock Prices

Abstract

This study finds evidence that a stock return is inversely correlated with downside risk, confirming a pattern of risk-aversion behavior. Evidence from testing a stock return's response to a change in economic policy uncertainty indicates a significantly negative effect in the Chinese stock market; this conclusion holds true for testing the impacts of changes in fiscal and monetary policy uncertainties. However, the data produce a mixed effect for the change in fiscal policy uncertainty. The evidence produced from examining the geopolitical effect on the stock market strongly supports the presence of an adverse effect on stock market performance.