Prediction of demand for landfill volume: analysis by dynamic extension of waste input-output model

K. Yokoyama
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Abstract

Prediction of lifecycle performances of demolished durables is necessary to manage limited landfill volume. Since there are various uncertainties about the lifetime of durables, the environmental effects from demolished durables are to be evaluated by considering probability distributions. In this research, to consider the uncertainty of waste generation from discarded durables depending on not only physical factors but economical factors, we try to estimate the failure distribution function of the buildings in consideration of the economic factor. By using estimated failure distribution function of the buildings, we evaluate two scenarios. The first scenario is concerned about effects of recovery of waste material. In second scenario, extension of usage life of building is considered.
填埋场容量需求预测:基于垃圾投入产出模型的动态扩展分析
预测拆除的耐用品的生命周期性能是必要的,以管理有限的垃圾填埋量。由于耐用品的使用寿命存在各种不确定性,拆除耐用品对环境的影响应考虑概率分布来评价。在本研究中,考虑到废弃耐用品产生的不确定性不仅取决于物理因素,而且取决于经济因素,我们试图估计考虑经济因素的建筑物的失效分布函数。利用建筑物的估计破坏分布函数,对两种情况进行了评估。第一种情况是关于回收废料的影响。在第二种情况下,考虑延长建筑物的使用寿命。
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