Study on transmission model of avian influenza

Abstract

Avian influenza is a recent contagious disease of animals which has been spreading in the world especially in Asia. In order to study the transmission law, we made an investigation of outbreaks of the epidemics in the Chinese Mainland. We found: most of outbreaks took place along the railways and main rivers; transmission of near distance (less than 500km) dominates the whole epidemics; the outbreak probability is dependent on the nearest distance from the epidemic regions, et al. Then we put forward a statistical transmission model of avian influenza, in which such factors that affect the epidemic transmission are considered as control measures, temperature, vaccination, outbreak frequency of different distances, et al. Simulation shows the model is able to describe the dissemination of avian influenza satisfactorily, and can predict the future epidemic situation. We draw useful conclusions about the epidemics in Chinese Mainland: Chinese government took the most stringent measures to prevent the transmission of avian influenza.