Should I Stay or Should I Go? Diplomatic Recognition of Taiwan, 1950–2016

Abstract

What explains why some countries recognise Taiwan despite attempts by the People’s Republic of China to pressure some to switch recognition? We argue for moving beyond ‘dollar diplomacy’ claims to unpack additional economic influences that might help explain why some states favour Taiwan. Using cross-national evidence from all countries (1950–2016), we find multiple economic factors influencing recognition and conclude that Taiwan’s comparative success in certain regions cannot be explained by broad structural factors.