Ethnopolitical Tensions and Assessment of the Possibility of Ethnic-National Conflicts

Abstract

The article examines the problems of open and latent ethnonational tension in Russian society, which in the conditions of aggravation of the social situation, may lead to the use of spontaneous methods of solving ethnonational conflicts, including those of a violent nature. A survey of 20 experts, who are qualified specialists in the sphere of ethno-extremism counteraction and ethno-national conflict localization, conducted by the author of the article, has shown that the majority of them have assessed both the current and forecasted situation in the sphere of ethnonational relations as “tense” for the next five to seven years. In their opinion, “ethnonational tension” is conditioned by a number of long-term factors that will influence the content and dynamics of ethnonational conflict in the Russian Federation: the desire of the USA for global dominance and the confrontational policy of NATO member states towards Russia; the antiRussian policy of the Ukrainian leadership, which is attempting to accuse Russia of “unleashing and waging a hybrid war against Ukraine” and actively pushing Western countries to strengthen confrontation with the Russian Federation; attempts by some states to bring territorial claims against Russia; intensification of the fight against embezzlement of budgetary funds, systemic corruption and ethno-extremist manifestations in the North Caucasus region; the ethnopolitical situation in the Republic of Crimea, characterized by manifestations of Ukrainian nationalism and militant Islamism. According to expert estimates, the highest degree of ethnonational tension is currently maintained in the Republic of Dagestan, the Republic of Ingushetia, the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, the Karachayevo-Circassian Republic, the Republic of Crimea, the Republic of Bashkortostan and the Republic of Tatarstan. The results of research in the article testify to the necessity of constant study of the problem of ethnonational conflicts, research into the factors influencing the maintenance and dynamics of conflict potential, definition of Russian regions with an increased level of tension, development of recommendations to authorities on prevention and localization of ethnonational conflicts.