Analysis of the Poisson Distribution Applicability to the Japanese Seismic Activity

Abstract

Being located on the Pacific Ring of Fire, Japan has an important seismic activity. Earthquake forecasting is thus a critical topic for the archipelago, and it is actively researched. Although the long-term objective remains seismic prediction accuracy, in this study, rather than focusing directly on prediction, we shall review and analyse recent past seismic data aiming at deducing patterns depending on, for instance, seismic intensities and geographical locations. In practice, we shall investigate several parameters for the application of the Poisson distribution and measure their impact on seismic probabilities and correspondence with past data.