A Lagging Dynamic Analysis of Factors Affecting Coal Consumption

Abstract

In order to analysis the factors affecting coal consumption ,The article uses path analysis to screened out the main factors affecting coal consumption and established coal consumption polynomial lag distribution model. And as a priori information, we established coal consumption Bayesian- PDLS dynamic effects distribution model. The results show that: Railway coal transportation volume, the urbanization rate and the proportion of secondary industry is the main driving factor in the growth of coal consumption, delay effects were 3 years, 2 years and 3 years. The railway coal transportation volume play an important role in coal consumption, and coal consumption for the three groups showed changes in the elasticity inverted "V" type, "N" type and the "W" shape.