Evacuation Route Choice Based on C-logit Model: Survey Analysis Utilizing a Two-route Scenario ?

Abstract

This paper picks out the key factors afiecting evacuation route choices and calibrates the corresponding choice model, which can serve the travel information publish and network system evaluation in the emergency evacuation. Time e‐ciency, information reliability and travel safety are criteria for the attributes selection. In the listed 9 candidate attributes, three (route length, delay time and delay-time reliability) of them are selected as the utility components by the method of Likert scale. A two-route stated preference survey is carried out to calibrate a C-logit model for the evacuation route choice which takes the aforementioned utility into account. Analysis results indicated that highly educated drivers are considered to be a group being risk averse. This information is useful to conduct a more correct model speciflcation of evacuation route choice and a more efiective control of tra‐c information in evacuation.