Electrical energy reform and its impact on power system collapse in Nigeria

Abstract

Power system collapse has adversely affected the economic and social wellbeing of Nigerians. This paper review electricity energy reform and its impact on system collapse in Nigeria. The data on incidences of total and partial collapse in Nigeria from the year 2000 to 2020 was transformed using natural log and then modeled using ARIMA model. The model was then used to predict both total and partial collapse trend in Nigeria power system from 2022 to 2030. The trend forecast shows that the total collapse will decrease from 1.3 to 0.75 in 2030 and partial collapse will decrease from 1.4 to 0 in 2030. The ARIMA model of both the total collapse and the partial collapse show that the Value< 0.05. This value shows it is highly statistically significant which means that the trend will continue to decrease.