Reliability Evaluation of Protective Devices in Smart Substations Based on Bayesian Monte Carlo Method

Abstract

In order to solve the problem of small sample data for the reliability of protective devices in smart substations, this paper proposes a reliability evaluation method for smart substation protective devices based on Bayesian-Monte Carlo theory. The reliability evaluation method based on Bayesian-Monte Carlo theory establishes Weibull distribution as the failure distribution model by goodness of fit test method and uses Monte Carlo method to expand the data samples. The posterior probability distribution of the parameters is obtained by using the Bayesian formula, and the reliability index is further calculated. The method solves the problem that the Bayesian formula is difficult to obtain analytical solution under the Weibull distribution. This paper provides a new idea for the reliability evaluation of smart substation protective devices under small sample failure data.