Analysis of Weather Characteristics and Decision Service of Typical Rainstorm and Flood in Hebei Province

Abstract

This paper analyzes and contrasts the four major torrential rain and flood weather backgrounds, rainfall conditions and characteristics, disaster situation and forecast service conditions of “ 63.8 ” 、 “96.8” 、 “7.21”and“7.19”in Hebei Province.The results show that:The torrential rains concentrated in the period from late July to early August. They all lasted for a long time and had a wide range of impacts.The torrential rains in the western mountainous areas were more serious. The “63.8”rainfall process lasted for 10 days,which was the longest in the four-time process;“63.8” had the highest rainfall intensity and the most serious disaster;“7.19”had the largest disaster area and the disaster degree was less than“63.8”. With the improvement of forecasting accuracy and the development of intelligence and informatization,the methods,means and channels of meteorological services have also undergone great changes. The decision-making meteorological services provide a more reliable basis for government decision-making,caused by major meteorological disasters.The number of deaths has decreased,the proportion of economic losses caused by meteorological disasters has fallen,and the benefits of meteorological services in mitigating the losses caused by meteorological disasters have increased. Keywords-torrential rain, weather characteristics, decision service 摘要:本文通过对河北省“63.8”、“96.8”、 “7.21”、“7.19”四次特大暴雨洪涝天气天气背 景、降雨实况及特征、灾情、预报服务情况进行分 析对比,结果表明:四次致灾暴雨集中出现在 7 月 下旬到 8 月上旬,都是持续时间长,影响范围广, 西部山区暴雨灾害更加严重。“63.8”降雨过程持 续时间10天,为四次过程中持续时间最长;“63.8” 降雨强度最大,受灾最为严重;“7.19”受灾范围 最大,受灾程度小于“63.8”。随着预报准确率的 提高和智能化、信息化的发展,气象服务的方式、 手段、渠道也发生了很大变化,决策气象服务工作 为政府决策提供了更加可靠的依据,重大气象灾害 造成的死亡人数降低,气象灾害造成的经济损失占 GDP 的比例下降,气象服务在减轻气象灾害所造成 损失的效益越来越大。