Simulation of Random dynamic changes of soil organic matter based on fuzzy Markov chain model

Abstract

In response to the random change features of soil organic matter content and limited monitoring data in practice, a fuzzy Markov chain model is put forward in this paper to be used in simulating and forecasting the dynamic change of the region soil organic matter content. Firstly, the content of organic matter is divided into four levels by using grey clustering method in order to establish the grading model and fuzzy membership function of the sample classification which can make the change of organic matter state more smooth, continuous and reasonable; Secondly, in view of the limited monitoring data of soil nutrient, Marko transition matrix is simplified, and a new method based on Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization (HPSO) is proposed to optimize the transition matrix; Finally, taking a county in Hebei province as the sample area, the simulation and forecast of dynamic change of soil organic matter are achieved. Analysis result shows that the simulation result suits well with the practical change trend.