The Agricultural Sector of Ukraine in the Global Food Market: Pre-war State and Post-war Prospects

Abstract

For a long time, Ukraine played an essential role as a producer of agricultural products in ensuring global and internal food security. The hostilities on the territory of Ukraine have caused significant risks to the activity of its agricultural sector and affected its current export potential. This study set out to assess the importance of Ukraine for world food security and its place in the global agricultural market, to outline current risks and to determine the prospects for the further development of agriculture in the conditions of post-war recovery. In particular, the integration of the agricultural sector into the global economic space was investigated, which showed the rapid expansion of the presence of agri-food products in certain commodity markets of some countries. An increase in the level of involvement of the agricultural sector in the global flows of goods related to food production has been established. This conclusion is based on calculations made using the data of input-output tables at basic prices. It is substantiated that the post-war recovery of Ukraine’s economy should ensure the reconstruction of the agricultural sector on the basis of sustainability. In this context, the authors presented the results of the assessment of possible changes in the production of the main types of agricultural products during the implementation of the concept of ecological resource-conserving agriculture. The impact of these changes on the country’s export potential and its food security was assessed by developing food balances for the main types of agricultural products. The conducted assessment that confirmed the necessity of such restructuring to ensure the preservation of the country’s agricultural potential in the long term.