Reliability Assessment of Energy Limited Systems Using Sequential Montecarlo Simulation

Abstract

This paper explains why the reliability assessment of energy limited systems requires more detailed models for primary generating resources availability, internal and external generating dispatch and customer demand than the ones commonly used for large power systems and presents a methodology based on the full sequential Monte Carlo simulation technique with AC power flow for their long term reliability assessment which can properly include these detailed models. By means of a real example, it is shown how the simplified modeling traditionally used for large power systems leads to pessimistic predictions if it is applied to an energy limited system and also that it cannot predict all the load point adequacy problems