A new technology framework for the reliability assessment and life prediction of a satellite power subsystem

Abstract

The power subsystem is one of the most important subsystems of a satellite. This subsystem, supplies the power for the satellite platform and payloads, and ensures the smooth completion of the satellite mission. An accurate reliability assessment and life prediction results provide useful information to for satellite development. This paper takes chooses a sample earth observation satellite's power subsystem for example, and proposes a new reliability assessment and life prediction technology framework. First, the reliability data of the subsystem components (-including the cd-ni battery, lithium-ion battery, solar cell array, and Power controllers) collected. Secondly, the CMSR — (Combined Modified Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Sequential Reduction (CMSR) method is used to determine the subsystem's reliability function according to the components' reliability data. The evaluate the reliability point estimation and reliability at the end of life are evaluated under some a Specified specific confidence level. Third, the (Mean Mission Duration Time (MMDT) of the subsystem calculated based on its reliability function. Through all the work above, the designer of the subsystem can test if the subsystem reliability level satisfies the design requirements. At the same time, the orbital life of the subsystem can be predicted before the satellite launches. Further — more, the reliability assessment, and life prediction results, and technology framework of the power subsystem can form the foundation of research into satellite reliability and life assurance.